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Cepea, March 18, 2024 – The warm and dry weather, mainly in Central-Southern Brazil, concerned concerning agents in mid-March, since this scenario may affect the crops development and limit productivity, especially of the second crop. On the other hand, the weather was favoring the summer crop.
In this scenario, sellers limited the volume offered, expecting price rises, based on the possible smaller supply in this season – official data indicate decreases for both first and second crops in 2023/24. Therefore, trades in Brazil were moving at a slow pace.
According to Conab, the summer crop is expected to total 23.41 million tons, downing 14.5% compared to the previous season. The second crop area may reduce by 8.3%, while the production is likely to decrease 14.7%, at 87.34 million tons. The third crop production may move down 7.6% in relation to 2022/23, at 1.99 million tons.
Taking production, initial stocks and imports into account, the supply is expected to amount 122.32 million tons in 2024, 13% less than in 2023. As a result, Conab indicates that exports may reduce this year, a scenario that has already been observed. The estimate is to ship 32 million tons, 22 million tons down compared to that exported in the crop before, according to Conab. In case this scenario is confirmed, ending stocks are forecast at 6.25 million tons, half the average verified over the last five years.
PRICES – Between February 29 and March 15, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) rose 1.51%, closing at BRL 63.17/bag on March 15.
CROPS – The warm and dry weather, although it concerns producers, has been favoring crop activities. The summer crop harvest hit 32.9% of the area until March 10, according to Conab. The second crop planting, in turn, is close to the end in some states, reaching 86.2% of the total up to March 10 – Conab data.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea