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Cepea, February 19, 2024
CATTLE – IBGE data about the number of slaughtered animals in 2023 confirm what quotations had already shown: the supply from cattle farmers surpassed the demand from meatpackers, leading to price drops throughout the year.
Data indicate that 33.9 million animals (both male and female) were slaughtered last year, which is close to the record verified in 2013 (34.4 million animals). Compared to 2022, the increase is 13.2%. Specifically in the fourth quarter of 2023, slaughters surpassed 9 million animals, a record for a quarter, and 20% up in relation to the same period in 2022.
Due to the increase of ready-to-slaughter animals supply, the CEPEA/B3 Index for fed cattle (São Paulo State) dropped 12% in the accumulated of 2023, in real terms, finishing December at BRL 247.96.
Meatpackers were (and are) willing to close deals to export, but this segment, which purchases roughly one quarter of the Brazilian beef (26% in 2023), was not able to sustain quotations due to the high supply. A demand reaction from Brazilians would be necessary; however, their limited purchase power did not allow the consumption increase.
As for the supply, producers have been investing in genetics and in feeding, at the same time others have been slaughtering female animals, since they are not satisfied with calf prices. Cepea data indicate that values of these animals have been moving down for approximately three years.
SWINE – Price averages for pork, chicken meat and beef were moving up in the wholesale market of the Greater São Paulo in mid-February. However, price rises have been more significant for pork meat, which has led this product to lose competitiveness compared to others.
Increases for pork meat values were attributed to the slightly low domestic supply and to the firm demand. However, players from Cepea say that the pace of sales reduced in the middle of February, which can press down quotations in the coming days.
POULTRY – Despite the live chicken price drops in Brazil, the purchase power of poultry farmers in São Paulo was increasing in the partial of February. This scenario is a result of more significant price drops for inputs used in the activity (soybean meal and corn). The decrease for live chicken quotations was related to the low demand for animals to slaughter in the first fortnight of February, due to reduction of chicken meat sales.
After hitting a record in 2023, Brazilian shipments of chicken meat decreased significantly in the first month this year, due to the smaller volume purchased by important trade partners in Asia and in the Middle East.
According to data from Secex, 404.9 thousand tons of chicken meat (in natura and processed products) were exported in January, 13.3% less than in December and moving down 3.8% compared to the same period in 2023.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea