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Cepea, February 5, 2024 – Despite weather problems in several regions in Brazil and the lower production compared to that estimated previously, the supply still prevails over the demand, reinforcing price decreases in the domestic market.
The production is not as limited as indicated by some agents, there is a low volume already traded in advance and losses in Brazilian crops may be counterbalanced by the production increase in Argentina and in Paraguay. As for the demand, the Chinese interest in the national product continues low. As a result, export premiums remain low, pressing down quotes in Brazil.
Comparing December 28, 2023, to January 31, 2024, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) dropped 17.87%, closing at BRL 117.03 per 60-kg bag on January 31. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) decreased 18.9% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 110.98 per 60-kg bag.
BYPRODUCTS – Due to consecutive soybean price drops, quotations of byproducts were also moving down in late January. The demand for soybean meal was low, since purchasers were unwilling to buy new batches in the spot market. As for the soybean oil, although quotations were decreasing, the industry claimed to have difficulties to trade because of the gap between prices from sellers and buyers.
CROPS – According to data from Conab, the soybean harvest reached 8.6% of the area in Brazil up to January 27, more than the 5.2% harvested a year ago.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea