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Cepea, January 15th, 2024 – Brazilian coffee producers may face challenges in 2024, especially related to unfavorable weather conditions forecast for this year in Brazil. The Southeast, where most part of the national coffee production is located, can still face periods of high temperatures and irregular volume of rainfall because of El Niño, which may continue up to April/24.
It is worth noting that, in the first moments of the 2024/25 season in Brazil, the weather had been favoring the development of flowers, a scenario that led players surveyed by Cepea to expect a good harvest. However, from mid-September to December 2023, heat waves, irregular rains, frosts in some areas and heavy winds affected the plants, which can reduce the volume of the 2024/25 crop.
As for robusta, the 2023/24 harvest was not good in Espírito Santo (Brazil’s biggest producer) and the development of the 2024/25 season has been facing weather problems.
Due to the below-expected crop development and limited world stocks, prices have been firm – arabica values are at around BRL 1,000 per 60-kilo bag, and robusta, BRL 760/bag. In general, quotations are expected to continue to oscillate in this early 2024, but the upward trend may prevail, at least at this year-beginning.
In a scenario of uncertainties, producers may take advantage of bullish trends to trade, especially because of high production costs.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea