[ad_1]
Cepea, January 15th, 2024 – The significant surplus in Brazil and the lower supply in the United States may lead Brazil to become the world’s biggest cotton exporter. The planting of the 2023/24 season in Brazil may be favored by delays in the soybean sowing in Cerrado, which may keep the surplus high in 2024 and in part of 2025. Therefore, Brazil is likely to surpass the US and become the third largest producer in the world in the 2023/24.
Conab estimates the 2023/24 Brazilian production to be the second biggest in history, only 3.5% less compared to 2022/23, at 3.061 million tons. Productivity is estimated at 1,754 kilos per hectare (8% down compared to 2022/23) and the area may increase 4.9%, to 1.745 million hectares, the biggest since the 1991/92 season (1.971 million hectares).
Production, initial stocks and imports may result in 5.2 million tons for the domestic availability in 2024, a volume that has never been reached. The domestic consumption is projected at 730 thousand tons, the biggest in one decade, for an increase of 7.35% in relation to the previous season, according to data from Conab released in December/23.
As a result, Brazil may have a surplus close to 4.5 million tons for the first time in history. From this amount, 2.5 million tons may be exported in 2024, generating final stocks of 2 million tons by December/24.
EXPORTS – Global exports are forecast at 9.395 million tons, according to the USDA. Brazilian shipments, in turn, are estimated at 2.504 million tons in the 2023/24 season (from August/23 to July/24), moving up 72.8% compared to the previous and the highest in history, only 5.7% below the volume from the US, which is currently the global leader.
However, Brazil may become the world’s biggest exporter in some moments, when considering accumulated shipments in 12 months. Between August and December 2023, Brazil exported 1.02 million tons of cotton, according to Secex. In the accumulated of the year, shipments totaled 1.5 million tons.
(Cepea-Brazil)
[ad_2]
Fonte: Cepea