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Cepea, January 15th, 2024
CATTLE – Brazilian exports of beef are expected to continue firm in 2024 and the domestic demand may register a recovery. Thus, the supply can drive prices of both fed cattle and beef this year.
The influence of international sales on the development of the Brazilian fed cattle activity and on the sustaining of domestic prices is consolidated. The Brazilian industry meets the needs of clients in different parts of the world.
As for the domestic market, inflation tends to be more controlled, and the GDP may register a slight increase. These conditions can increase the demand for beef – Cepea calculations indicate that the in natura beef consumption would move up 1.79% in 2024. Despite being a slight increase, it is a positive aspect, especially because of the consumption decrease in previous years.
As for the supply, the annual seasonality shows that, from March on, the volume available increases, pressing down quotations. Another aspect that can indicate supply increase in some areas in the coming months comes from the dairy sector. Milk prices are low and feeding costs are high, scenario that can lead producers to slaughter less productive cows.
SWINE – Perspectives for the swine sector are favorable for 2024, based on the possible increases of the domestic consumption and exports and the possibility of lower production costs compared to previous years.
As for the domestic consumption, the demand for pork meat may continue firm this year. Cepea calculations indicate that the pork meat consumption is expected to increase 2.8% in relation to 2023.
Regarding pork meat shipments, the sector expects the performance obtained in 2023 to continue this year. From January to November last year, Brazilian exports totaled 1.1 million tons; therefore, they can surpass the 2021 record (1.12 million tons).
The agreement between ABPA (Brazilian Association of Animal Protein) and ApexBrasil (Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency) was renewed until 2025, aiming to promote meat exports, pork included.
Despite the 11% decrease of exports to China from 2022 to 2023 (between January and November), shipments to that country are likely to continue firm in 2024, due to the increasing number of African Swine Fever (ASF) cases in Europe, which tends to allocate the Chinese demand to Brazil. According to data from the USDA, the pork meat production in the European Union may decrease 1.6% in 2024.
In order to meet both domestic and international demands for in natura and processed products, Cepea estimates that the number of animals slaughtered can increase 3.3% from 2023 to 2024, at 59.1 million animals.
POULTRY – The Brazilian poultry market may continue to register records in 2024. According to projections performed by Cepea, the chicken meat production is likely to remain increasing this year and firm exports may be determinant for this trend.
The national chicken meat production totaled 10.1 million tons in the partial of 2023 (from January to September), 6.1% up compared to that verified in the same period last year and a record of the Quarterly Survey of Animal Slaughter (IBGE) series.
Brazilian shipments totaled 4.6 million tons in the first 11 months of 2023, for an increase of 5.6% in relation to that in the same period of 2022, and the highest of Secex series, which has started in 1997.
Cepea surveys show that the volume of chicken meat may total 13.9 million tons this year, 2% up compared to that expected for 2023. Exports, in turn, are likely to surpass 5.1 million tons.
The sector has positive expectations about the international market. Data from the USDA indicate that Brazilian chicken meat shipments may move up almost 4% in 2024, while the global average is close to 3%.
Brazil is currently responsible for more than one third of chicken meat traded in the world, and this number may increase even more in 2024 – high competitiveness of prices in Brazil and impacts of the Avian Influenza in important players of the poultry market in the world favor this scenario.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea