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Cepea, July 2, 2024 – The 2023/24 cotton harvest is expected to hit a record; however, the product of that season may only be available some weeks or months from now. Thus, prices are firm. The low volume from the 2022/23 crop and the firm behavior of sellers reinforce the scenario of firm quotations, especially those for the high-quality product.
Producers may allocate the first batches of the season to term contracts, which were closed at attractive values – new deals are being closed in the domestic market. Some players are interested in closing new trades, while others continue to search for the raw material at lower values.
Between May 31 and June 28, the CEPEA/ESALQ cotton Index (payment in 8 days) moved up 1.72%, to close at BRL 3.9697 per pound on June 28. It is worth noting that, on June 21, the Index operated at around BRL 4.00 per pound, which had not been seen since mid-April/24.
CONAB – On a report released on June 13, Conab indicated that the cotton area in Brazil may total 1.945 million hectares in the 2023/24 crop, 0.13% up against data released in May/24 and 16.9% more than in the 2022/23 season. Productivity rose 0.24% in relation to that estimated in the month before, but can still be 1.4% smaller than in the previous crop, at 1,881 kg/ha. Therefore, the output in Brazil is estimated at the record of 3.66 million tons (+0.37% in the monthly comparison and +15.2% against the 2022/23 season).
In Mato Grosso, Conab projects that the area may increase 18.9% compared to the 2022/23 crop, at 1.4 million hectares. Productivity is expected at 1,877 kg/ha, 0.8% down in relation to the season before. The production in MT is forecast at 2.66 million tons, moving up 18% against the 2022/23 crop.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea