Pace of trades increase; prices move up

Cepea, June 18, 2024 – Soy trades were moving at a good pace in the domestic market in mid-June, because of the firm demand (both international and local) and of the dollar valuation against Real. Therefore, prices rose in the Brazilian spot market, especially soybean oil quotations. Besides the higher international demand, the competition between consumers of the food industry and of the biofuel industry increased.

This scenario boosted soy oil export premiums in Brazil. The price rose 7.4% from May 31 to June 17, at BRL 5,725.39 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on June 17, the highest value since April 11, 2023, in nominal terms. In real terms (IGP-DI May/24), the average price in the partial of June (up to June 17), is the highest since November/23.

Conab indicates that the soybean oil production is likely to hit the record of 10.6 million tons, 0.9% more than in the season before. However, the consumption is projected at 9.26 million tons (+10.3%). This scenario may limit exports, forecast at 1.4 million tons, 40% down against the previous crop.

Thus, the industry will have the challenge to flow soybean meal. Moreover, Argentina may lead exports again in this season. Conab projects a decrease of 11% for Brazilian shipments of soybean meal.

Conab expects the domestic soybean meal consumption to amount 18 million tons, 1.1% more than in the crop before, which sustained quotations in Brazil.

SOYBEANS – Due to the firm demand for byproducts and attractive margins for the industry, local companies were demanding the raw material, boosting the competition with importers.

Conab says that the national soybean output is likely to total 147.35 million tons, 4.7% lower than in the season before. Exports are estimated at 92.43 million tons, for a decrease of 9.3% in the same comparison.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) moved up 0.89% from May 31 to June 17, closing at BRL 139.02 per 60-kg bag on June 17. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) increased 0.74%, to close at BRL 134.26 per 60-kg bag.

EXPORTS – Brazilian soybean shipments totaled 13.45 million tons in May, downing 8.4% compared to April and 13.7% in relation to in May/23 – data from Secex.

(Cepea-Brazil)