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Cepea, June 4, 2024 – Wheat prices tend to be firm in Brazil in the second quarter of the year, sustained by lower stocks. In 2024, besides the lower domestic availability, values have also been influenced by the international scenario – 2024/25 global stocks tend to decrease for the third year in a row.
As a result, wheat prices in the wholesale market (deals between processors), considering major regions surveyed by Cepea, are the highest since the middle of 2023, in real terms (monthly prices were deflated by IGP-DI). As for quotations paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market), they advance, but at a lower intensity, which can be related to the low liquidity.
Purchasers claim to have difficulties to find high-quality product in the domestic market, due to the production decrease in 2023. On the other hand, imports are still firm. Mills in Brazil are focused on the possibility of productivity decrease in the United States and in Russia, which can sustain international prices.
In May, the monthly average of wheat prices in Paraná was BRL 1,391.42 per ton, 9.8% more than in April/24, but downing 4% compared to May/23, in real terms. In Rio Grande do Sul, the average was BRL 1,282.65/ton, 7% up in one month, but for a decrease of 0.9% in one year. In São Paulo, prices averaged BRL 1.502.44/ton in May, +14.4% and +4% in the same comparisons.
In Paraná, data from Seab/Deral indicate that the wheat planting reached 59% of the area, projected at 1.12 million hectares. In Rio Grande do Sul, the significant amount of rainfall in May damaged the soil.
SECEX – According to data from Secex, Brazil imported 598.5 thousand tons of wheat up to the fourth week of May, 111% up compared to that in May/23 (283.52 thousand tons). Exports totaled 55 thousand tons in the partial of this month, against 68.2 thousand tons in the same month of 2023.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea