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Cepea, May 16, 2024 – Cotton prices oscillated in the first fortnight of May, but closed the period in a downward trend.
At the beginning of the month, although some sellers were more flexible regarding values in the spot market, especially those who aimed to sell off stocks from the 2022/23 season, prices dropped because some players from the industry offered lower prices to close new deals.
Domestic cotton values resumed moving up as days went by, sustained by increases of international prices. Data indicating firm demand in the short-term and positive perspectives for the mid-term, due to the income increase in emerging countries, especially in Asia, have resulted in slight price rises of the product delivered in the Far East. This trend was transferred to the future market and to the export parity. However, this trend was not enough to maintain values in an upward movement and they dropped again.
Comparing April 30 and May 15, the CEPEA/ESALQ cotton Index dropped 2.99%, closing at BRL 3.8063 per pound on May 15.
CONAB – The report released by Conab on May 14 indicated that the cotton area in Brazil in the 2023/24 season may total 1.942 million hectares, 16.7% up compared to the 2022/23 crop and an increase of 0.33% against data released in March/24. The productivity is expected to move up 0.88% in relation to that estimated in the month before, but can still be 1.6% smaller than in the crop before, at 1,87 kg per hectare. Therefore, production in Brazil is likely to hit 1.21% in the monthly comparison and 14.8% compared to the 2022/23 season, totaling 3.64 million tons, which would be a record.
USDA – Data released by the USDA on May 10 indicate that the global production may total 25.919 million tons in the 2024/25 season, upping 4.8% compared to the 2023/24 crop. The world consumption may increase 3.1% compared to the 2023/24 season, at 25.442 million tons.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea