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Cepea, May 6, 2024 – Sellers have been focused on the development of the second corn crop and on the harvest of the summer crop, showing little interest to close deals. Purchasers, in turn, have been limiting trades due to the good volume of remaining stocks from the 2022/23 season, the good pace of the summer crop harvest and the fact that second corn crops have been developing well.
In this scenario, from March 28 to April 30, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) moved down 6.23%, closing at BRL 57.93 per 60-kilo bag on April 30. Comparing monthly averages, prices in April were 5.9% lower than in March/24 and 13.6% smaller than in April/23, in real terms (IGP-DI March/24).
Sowing activities in the United States are moving in a better pace compared to the average of the last crops, resulting in good expectations for the production. For the time being, the 2023/24 production in the US is forecast at 389.69 million tons by the USDA. In Argentina, the output is also expected to be good. This scenario, in turn, may limit exports from Brazil.
EXPORTS – In 20 days working days of April, shipments totaled only 62.84 thousand tons, below the 470 thousand tons verified in April/23 – data from Secex. Prices at the Paranaguá port (PR) upped only 0.2% between April 25 and May 2, influenced by the dollar valuation.
CROPS – Despite the good development of the second crop so far, the low volume of rainfall and high temperatures in the south of Mato Grosso, Paraná and São Paulo have started to concern players.
As for the summer crop, the harvest has been interrupted in Rio Grande do Sul in early May, due to the excess of rains and floods in several areas in the state. In other areas in Brazil, activities continue to move at a good pace. The harvest had totaled 59.8% of the national area until April 28, upping 3.1 percentage points in one week – Conab data.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea