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Cepea, April 17, 2024 – Wheat prices increased in early April in the domestic market, influenced by the fact that producers are away from trades – those who still have high-quality product in this offseason period prefer to wait for better opportunities. Many producers are refrained from the market because they are focused on conditions of both crops and the weather – the planting period is close in Southern Brazil and, for now, estimates indicate a smaller area. Producers are also focused on the international market, especially on conflicts in the Middle East. Therefore, although prices increased, the pace of trades continued slow.
PROJECTIONS – This month, Conab has indicated that the national wheat area may total 3.3 million hectares, 4.7% lower than in the crop before. Productivity, in turn, is likely to increase 26.1% in the same comparison. Therefore, production may total 9.72 million tons, 20.2% up against that in 2023. Conab says that imports are estimated at 5.5 million tons from August/24 to July/25. The domestic availability is expected at 15.42 million tons, and the consumption, at 12.62 million tons. Exports continue forecast at 2 million tons.
In global terms, the USDA indicates harvest of 787.36 million tons, practically stable in relation to the previous report (786.7 million tons), but downing 0.3% compared to the crop before. As for Brazil, the volume produced continues projected at 8.1 million tons.
According to data from Secex, 103 thousand tons of wheat were imported by Brazil in early April, accounting for 33% of the volume registered in April 2023. Exports, in turn, totaled 295.48 thousand tons in the first five working days of April.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea