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Cepea, April 3, 2024 – The price of the milk produced in February upped 3.8% (the fourth consecutive monthly increase), closing at BRL 2.2347/liter on the “Brazil Average”. Despite the price rise, quotations are still 21.6% below those observed in February 2023, in real terms (values were deflated by the IPCA from Feb/24), according to Cepea surveys.
The upward trend, which has started in November/23, is related to the lower production and to the fierce competition for suppliers between dairy companies and cooperatives. The Cepea Milk Production Index (ICAP-L) moved down 3.35% between January and February, with a decrease of 5.2% in the accumulated of the first two months of 2024. The supply decrease, in turn, is explained by the unfavorable weather and by limited margins over the last months, which have led producers to shrink investments.
Players expect prices to continue to move up in the next months, but this trend may be limited by consumption and imports. Agents surveyed by Cepea say that the final consumption of byproducts was unstable in February, bringing difficulties for dairy companies to transfer price rises of the raw material. Dairy imports, in turn, continue to amount significant volumes (despite the decrease in the last two months), pressing quotations down in the domestic market.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea