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Cepea, August 5, 2024 – Data released by the USDA in late July reinforced the scenario of limited world supply for the 2023/24 orange season (or 2024/25 in the Southern Hemisphere). Despite the slight increase in the production estimate compared to the crop before, the total volume may continue at historical low levels. Moreover, the decrease in Brazil, major global producer of both orange and juice, may not be counterbalanced by other suppliers.
The USDA indicates that the 2023/24 world crop is projected at 47.4 million tons, upping 1% compared to the season before. In Brazil, the output may decrease 1.2%, to 15.3 million tons – equivalent to 375 million 40.8-kg boxes. However, the decrease indicated by the USDA might be underestimated. In São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro, the production is likely to drop 24.4%, according to Fundecitrus, and there are doubts whether a possible increase in other states would compensate the low volume produced in the citrus belt.
ORANGE JUICE – In spite of the slight rise in the global orange production, the orange juice output is projected at 1.5 million tons, 3% down against the season before. The decrease is related to the lower availability of fruits to process in Brazil, which represents more than 70% of the global OJ production.
The Brazilian output is calculated at 1.1 million tons, downing 9%, and national exports are likely to decrease in the same intensity, since almost 100% of the Brazilian production is sent to the international market.
TAITI LIME – The global production of lemons and limes in 2023/24 is estimated to move up 2%, reaching 10.1 million tons, boosted by the higher output in the European Union and in Turkey.
It is worth noting that these numbers consider lemons (Sicilian, for instance) and limes (such as the tahiti lime). Among major producing countries, only Mexico produces significant volumes of tahiti lime (which is produced and exported by Brazil). Mexican shipments are likely to reduce 7.5%, which can keep the focus of this country on supplying the US, opening more room for the Brazilian tahiti lime in the European market – Brazil has been hitting records in exports year after year.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea