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Cepea, August 5, 2024 – International wheat prices resumed decreasing in late July, influenced by the possible record supply in the global 2024/25 crop. It is worth remembering that international quotations were moving up due to the estimate of smaller production in Russia (major global exporter), as a result of the area decrease and unfavorable weather conditions. However, new forecasts by SovEcon indicate that the output in Russia may change from 84.2 to 84.7 million tons, increasing the optimism for a record in 2024/25.
Numbers in Argentina reinforce expectations of high global supply. According to data from Bolsa de Cereales, the good soil moist favored the planting. Activities hit 98.5% of the 6.3 million hectares, and the production is likely to amount 18.1 million tons, for an increase of 19.8% compared to the 2023/24 crop.
In the US, the USDA says that crops in good/excellent conditions are 77% of the total. The harvesting, in turn, reached 89% of the area.
BRAZIL – The weather has been favoring crops that had already been planted in Southern Brazil. In Rio Grande do Sul, data from Emater/RS indicate that the planting hit 94% of the area. In Paraná, activities finished in late July, according to Seab/Deral. In Santa Catarina, 64% of the area had been planted up to July 21 – data from Conab.
Up to the third week of July (15 producing days), Brazil imported 365.357 thousand tons, 12.5% smaller than in July/23 (417.75 thousand tons in 21 working days). Exports, in turn, totaled 28 thousand tons in the first fortnight of July this year.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea