Income recovers and favors beef consumption

Cepea, August 5, 2024

CATTLE – The income of Brazilians has been increasing along with perspectives of beef consumption. According to estimates of the USDA, the beef consumption in Brazil may surpass by 4% that observed last year, influenced by increases of the income and the domestic supply.

Data from the IBGE indicate an increase of 2.5% of the real income in Brazil in the period March-April-May against the last period of 2023. According to Cepea calculations, the 1% income rise boosts the consumption of high-quality beef by 0.7%

Another aspect that has been favoring consumption this year is the price reduction of cuts due to the increase of the animal supply.

EXPORTS – According to data from Secex, 1.14 million tons of in natura beef were shipped in the first semester, 29% more than in the same period last year. In the partial of July, daily shipments are at 10.781 thousand tons, totaling 215.61 thousand tons, a record considering that there are some days left for the end of the month and that it is the in natura product. The volume is likely to surpass 240 thousand tons.

SWINE – Monthly price averages for live pig and pork meat have been moving up for three months in a row. In July, quotations continued high in most part of the period, despite slight price drops at the end of the second fortnight in some areas surveyed by Cepea. As for live pig, averages in July were the highest since April/21, in real terms (IGP-DI June/24), in some locations.

POULTRY – The register of the Newcastle disease in a poultry farm in Anta Gorda, in Vale do Taquari region in Rio Grande do Sul state, in late July, preoccupied players of the sector. The risk of an extension of the self-embargo of Brazilian chicken meat exports and the impacts on the domestic market were among the major concerns. However, the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (Mapa) notified the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) about the end of the disease at the end of the month.

Chicken meat values finished July with distinct movements among regions surveyed by Cepea. While the typical demand increase at the beginning of the month and the limited supply sustained monthly price averages in some areas, in others, the demand decrease, due to school holidays, and the consequent low liquidity pressed down quotations.

(Cepea-Brazil)