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Cepea, March 18, 2024 – Although official data indicate that the 2023/24 global wheat season is likely to be below the demand, both domestic and international prices continue to move down.
In Brazil, low liquidity has been keeping quotations down. In the international market, in turn, the fact that China cancelled purchases and the increase of stocks in the United States pressed values down at Chicago Board of Trade (CME Group).
ESTIMATES – Data released by the USDA in March indicate that the world production may hit 786.7 million tons, 0.1% up compared to the previous report, but downing 0.3% in relation to the season before – the decrease is linked especially to the lower production in Australia (-14.5 million tons). As for Brazil, the projection continues at 8.1 million tons.
The global consumption is forecast by the USDA at 798.97 million tons in 2023/24, upping 1% in relation to 2022/23. Ending stocks were again reduced to 258.83 million tons, 4.5% below that in the season before and one of the lowest volumes since 2015/16.
DOMESTIC MARKET – Purchasers continued to look for high-quality wheat in mid-March, but the supply remained low. Therefore, trades in the spot market were moving at a slow pace.
Brazil imported 531.55 thousand tons of wheat in February, 13.4% less than in January, but for an increase of 82.3% compared to February/23. In the last 12 months, imports totaled 4.59 million tons. As for exports, Brazil shipped 276.42 thousand tons in February, downing 72.9% against the month before and 48.5% in relation to the same month in 2023. In 12 months (from March/23 to February/24), exports totaled 2.6 million tons – data from Secex.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea