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Cepea, March 18, 2024 – Although sales of manufactured products moved at a firm pace in February, purchasers were away from trades of new batches in the spot market in mid-March. As a result, liquidity is low. This scenario, along with price oscillations in the international market, keeps cotton quotations low in the domestic market.
The low pace of trades is related to the disagreement between purchasers and sellers about both quality and prices.
The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for cotton downed 3.26% from February 29 to March 15, to close at BRL 4.2223/pound on March 15.
Cepea calculations show that the export parities FAS (Free Alongside Ship) decreased 0.39% from March 4 to 11, to BRL 4.5505/pound (USD 0.9147/pound) at the port of Santos (SP) and BRL 4.5611/pound (USD 0.9168/pound) at the port of Paranaguá (PR) on March 11. The Cotlook A Index (product delivered in the Far East) dropped 0.94% in the same period, to USD 1.0495/pound on March 11. Dollar quotes rose 0.57% against Real between March 4 and 11, closing at BRL 4.975 on March 11.
CONAB – The institution indicated that the 2023/24 national area may total 1.936 million hectares, increasing 16.3% compared to that in the 2022/23 crop and 3.12% in relation to the report released in February/24. Productivity may be 5% higher than in the previous estimate, but still 3.6% smaller compared to the season before, at 1,839 kilos per hectare. Therefore, production in Brazil is likely to increase 8.27% in the monthly comparison and 12.2% against the 2022/23 crop, to the highest volume in history. The increase is linked to positive adjustments in the biggest cotton producer in Brazil, Mato Grosso.
USDA – Data released by the USDA on March 8 indicate an increase of only 0.1% in the 2023/24 global production compared to that forecast in February, but downing 2.8% against the 2022/23 season, totaling 24.593 million tons. The consumption is expected to grow 0.4% (monthly comparison), at 24.591 million tons.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea