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Cepea, February 19, 2024 –Wheat prices have been fluctuating slightly in the domestic market for circa four months. Not even the decrease of the supply from the previous crop and low inventories were able to boost quotations. In Rio Grande do Sul, for instance, the 2023 production was equivalent to half of that harvested in 2022 and, still, prices remain low.
Wheat trades continued to move at a slow pace in the domestic market, since players from wheat mills were unwilling to close deals, while producers were focused on soybean and corn crops. Despite that, shipments were moving at a good pace.
According to data from Secex, up to the fourth week of January, Brazil shipped 812.18 thousand tons of wheat, against 561.52 thousand tons in January last year. Imports totaled 520.64 thousand tons, higher than the 439.98 thousand tons in the first month of 2023.
Conab indicates that the area may total 3.48 million hectares, similar to that in the year before. As for productivity, it may increase 25.9% in Brazil in 2024, at 2.93 tons per hectare. As a result, production is expected to total 10.19 million tons, for a sharp increase of 26% in relation the season ended in 2023.
Conab also estimates imports at 5 million tons between August/24 and July/25, leading to the domestic availability at 15.6 million tons, against 15.01 million tons last season. The domestic consumption may hit the record of 12.64 million tons, while exports are forecast at 2 million tons.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea