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In January 2024, Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics) completes two decades of publishing research on the poultry sector. Prices of almost 40 varieties are daily collected by Cepea’s team in six Brazilian states. The valuable data allow to elaborate complete analysis concerning price trends and the market in the country.
Initially, Cepea’s research was focused on the prices of frozen and chilled chicken in the main producing and trading states. With the expansion of activities, other important regions and products for the sector were incorporated to the research. This dedicated work aims to generate price references in order to reduce asymmetries of information in the Brazilian poultry market.
Cepea has been following the evolution of the sector over the last 20 years. Brazil has reached an important position in the global poultry sector, becoming the highest exporter of chicken meat and the second largest producer. Currently, more than one third of all chicken meat traded on the planet comes from Brazil, and this trend is expected to persist in the next years.
While the production of chicken meat in Brazil rose 3.8% per year in the last two decades, the global increase was at around 2.5% per year, according to data from IBGE and USDA, analyzed by Cepea. The foreign market has been essential to absorb this production that grows quickly.
The annual rise on Brazilian chicken meat exports was 3.6%, on average, over the last 20 years, according to Secex. Many factors and events justify this movement; such as: the cases of African Swine Fever (ASF), which killed millions of animals in 2019 in China, the covid-19 pandemic in 2020, the war between Russia and Ukraine and the increase in cases of Avian Influenza (AI) in the world, in 2022.
Even with all the challenges related to food production and distribution, the Brazilian poultry sector remained resilient during the pandemic, ensuring food security not only in Brazil, but also in the world. In 2020, for the first time, the global production of chicken meat was above pork, reaching 99.6 million tons, according to data from USDA.
This economic-sanitary global context, added to the strategy of Brazilian poultry sector for diversifying meat destinations, has favored national exports of the product over the last years. In 2023, shipments totaled 5.1 million tons, 6.8% higher than the volume registered in the same period in 2022, and representing the third consecutive record in the entire Secex historical series, which began in 1997.
In the domestic market, chicken meat also occupies a prominent place. The product has become popular in Brazil favored by several factors, such as practicality in preparation, large portfolio, healthiness, and, mainly, by the cost-benefit.
Chicken meat usually presents competitive values compared to other meats (beef and pork), being a good option for people with lower purchasing power – this was even very evident during the covid-19 period.
In 2020, the economic impacts of pandemic and the valuations on beef and pork prices boosted chicken meat sales in Brazil and the values of this product, but less significantly.
On the other hand, last year, chicken meat prices resumed decreasing sharply in the domestic market, reflecting a record production. Moreover, the increase of cattle slaughter and the consequent increase in the domestic availability of beef reduced the competitiveness of chicken meat – in 2023, the price gap between whole chilled chicken and beef carcass was the lowest since 2019.
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Fonte: Cepea