[ad_1]
Cepea, January 15th, 2024 – The sugar production may increase in the 2024/25 season in the Central-Southern area in Brazil, surpassing the record of the current crop (2023/24).
The sector estimates that, for the 2024/25 season, the sugar production may surpass 43 million tons, and, concerning the sugarcane production, it can amount between 625 and 640 million tons. Even with the possible 3% decrease in the sugarcane production, the higher sugar volume in the next season may come from the bigger sugar production mix – more than 50% of the cane is expected to be allocated to the sugar production.
Lower oil prices and less stabilized Real quotations may reduce gasoline values at pumps, reducing the competitiveness of ethanol compared to the fossil fuel and favoring the higher sugar production mix.
At ICE futures, demerara prices may not continue at the high levels observed in 2023, especially when the new crop starts in Brazil, in April/24. Up until then, international prices may still increase, mainly because of the scenario in India – the country is concerned with the domestic sugar supply and is focused on elections in May/24; therefore, it may not prioritize exports, aiming to reduce domestic prices.
Moreover, India, which is the second biggest global sugar producer, has been facing difficulties in the sugarcane production, due to the below-average volume of rainfall. In Thailand, the second largest sugar exporter, the production is moving down, affecting the participation of the country in the global market.
As a result, the International Sugar Organization expects a deficit of 330 thousand tons in the world sugar production, at 179.88 million tons, and the consumption may total 180.22 million tons.
(Cepea-Brazil)
[ad_2]
Fonte: Cepea