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Cepea, January 15th, 2024 – The global soybean area increased for the fourth season in a row, bringing expectations that the record supply in the 2023/24 crop will be renewed. The world area has increased 12.6% and productivity, 4% since the 2019/20 season, according to data from the USDA. As a result, the global production rose 16.8%. The demand has also been increasing, but at a slower pace compared to the supply: the total soybean consumption rose 6.7% in for crop-years, and the crushing moved up 5.4%. Therefore, ending stocks have been increasing. For the time being, the 2023/24 stock/consumption ratio is estimated at 29.7%, the highest in five years (in 2018/19, it was at 33%).
This scenario may limit price rises in the short-term. It is worth noting that USDA estimates for the 2023/24 season may still be changed and that data from the Department are higher than those indicated by private consulting companies. In Brazil, the harvest is in progress, but El Niño impacts are already appearing on the production. Thus, many players expect negative adjustments in data from the USDA in the coming reports.
Soybean production costs, in turn, are lower in the 2023/24 season compared to the previous, according to data from Cepea. In Sorriso (MT), for instance, the decrease was 32.8%.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND – The global supply is likely to total the record of 398.88 million tons, according to the USDA. The United States harvested 112.38 million tons of soybean, the lowest volume since 2019/20; however, forecasts for South America counterbalance the decrease in the US.
The USDA estimates the Brazilian crop to hit 161 million tons, a record. In Argentina, the season may total 48 million tons, 92% more than the volume produced last crop, which may favor the return of byproducts exports.
As for the demand, the USDA indicates that China is expected to import the record of 102 million tons (+1%). Brazil may supply the global market with the record amount of 99.5 million tons.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Fonte: Cepea